- AfD, classified as an extremist group by German domestic intelligence in parts of the country, won a plurality in a state where its Saxony-Anhalt branch is explicitly monitored as extremist.
- Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU was routed, and mainstream parties now face the choice of building an awkward coalition to freeze out AfD or watching the firewall crumble.
- The result signals accelerating far-right normalization across Europe eight decades after WWII, with more eastern state elections looming this fall.
Read full article
Alternative for Germany scored the biggest electoral breakthrough in its 13-year history on Sunday, winning a landslide in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt and more than doubling its previous vote share. The result marks the first time the far-right, anti-immigrant party has come first in a German state election, and it puts Chancellor Friedrich Merz's fragile coalition in Berlin under acute pressure just months into his term.
Every mainstream German party has pledged never to govern with AfD, a policy known as the "firewall" rooted in Germany's confrontation with its Nazi past. The country's domestic intelligence agency, the BfV, classifies AfD's Saxony-Anhalt branch as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization. Yet voters handed the party a plurality large enough that keeping it out of power will require the CDU to construct an unwieldy coalition — possibly involving the small left-populist BSW — simply to deny AfD the premiership. Party co-leader Alice Weidel and state candidate Ulrich Siegmund used a Berlin press conference Monday to demand the firewall be dismantled entirely.
Merz responded by doubling down on unpopular economic reforms, arguing that only visible results on migration, growth and energy costs can stop AfD's advance. That is an optimistic read. AfD has been polling first or tied for first nationally for more than a year, and further eastern state elections this autumn are likely to deliver similar results. Migrants living in Saxony-Anhalt told reporters they are actively reconsidering their futures in the region.
The deeper story is that the postwar German consensus — that exposure to the horrors of Nazism had inoculated the country against nationalist extremism — was wishful thinking. Germany is now following the same trajectory as France, Italy, the Netherlands and Austria, where far-right parties have moved from fringe to governing partner within a decade. The firewall may hold in Saxony-Anhalt this year. It is unlikely to hold everywhere much longer.
Sources (5)
- Associated Press: AfD party's landslide win in eastern Germany tests country's 'firewall' against the far right
- New York Times: Germany's 'Firewall' Against the Far Right Is Being Tested Like Never Before
- NPR: Germany's far-right achieves an electoral breakthrough in key state election
- New York Times: After Victory in German State, Far Right Needs Help to Take Power
- Yahoo News: Far-right triumph in eastern Germany leaves migrants questioning their future